It’s Sept. 20 and it’s a surreal election season. So many have assumed that President Obama has won re-election. Many of my liberal social media friends have move into full gloat mode. It’s over folks, Romney’s a loser, conservative pundits David Brooks, Ed Rollins, Peggy Noonan, Bill Kristol, Joe Scarborough, all disgusted with Romney. Over at MSNBC, they’re popping the champagne corks weeks early.
I know that every person is America can produce a poll that shows Romney down by 14 in Wisconsin, or trailing by 8 nationally. I know pollmeister Nate Silver is talking about a great November for the Democrats. (here) Believe me, I see them trumpeted. However, I pay attention to the Gallup tracking poll, mainly because it’s the most up-to-date and has a strong reputation. Today, among registered voters, it’s 47 Obama, 47 Romney. Look at the history of the tracking poll since March. (here) Except for a small, now dissipated DNC bounce for Obama, the polling has been relatively equal. An 11-state tracking poll, from Rasmussen, has similar numbers. (here)
There’s been lots of bad news of late. A stagnant job market, record numbers of persons out of the workforce and/or receiving government aid, a Middle Eastern policy that has collapsed, an administration having to back away from its initial claims of why an ambassador and other diplomats were murdered in Libya, the announcements that more than 6 million poor and middle class Americans will get tax hikes due to Obamacare. This is not good news for an incumbent.
It’s hard for me to imagine most voters, other than Democratic Party partisans or Romney-loathers, are feeling enthusiastic about the president’s re-election. Maybe I’m wrong, but I still think this is a close race that will go down to which candidates’ supporters are more motivated to vote.