This is a surreal election season; so many have declared Obama the winner

It’s Sept. 20 and it’s a surreal election season. So many have assumed that President Obama has won re-election. Many of my liberal social media friends have move into full gloat mode. It’s over folks, Romney’s a loser, conservative pundits David Brooks, Ed Rollins, Peggy Noonan, Bill Kristol, Joe Scarborough, all disgusted with Romney. Over at MSNBC, they’re popping the champagne corks weeks early.

I know that every person is America can produce a poll that shows Romney down by 14 in Wisconsin, or trailing by 8 nationally. I know pollmeister Nate Silver is talking about a great November for the Democrats. (here) Believe me, I see them trumpeted. However, I  pay attention to the Gallup tracking poll, mainly because it’s the most up-to-date and has a strong reputation. Today, among registered voters, it’s 47 Obama, 47 Romney. Look at the history of the tracking poll since March. (here) Except for a small, now dissipated DNC bounce for Obama, the polling has been relatively equal. An 11-state tracking poll, from Rasmussen, has similar numbers. (here)

There’s been lots of bad news of late. A stagnant job market, record numbers of persons out of the workforce and/or receiving government aid, a Middle Eastern policy that has collapsed, an administration having to back away from its initial claims of why an ambassador and other diplomats were murdered in Libya, the announcements that more than 6 million poor and middle class Americans will get tax hikes due to Obamacare. This is not good news for an incumbent.

It’s hard for me to imagine most voters, other than Democratic Party partisans or Romney-loathers, are feeling enthusiastic about the president’s re-election. Maybe I’m wrong, but I still think this is a close race that will go down to which candidates’ supporters are more motivated to vote.

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22 Responses to This is a surreal election season; so many have declared Obama the winner

  1. Ben Pales says:

    300 my friend, 300.

    • Doug says:

      Ben, as I mentioned on FB, I have a nice charity selected for you to donate $20 to after Obama fails to reach 300 electoral votes.

  2. Howard Ratcliffe says:

    “Think of the press as a tool dictators can use” Joseph Goebbels
    Who cares? SCYTL, a Barcelona based Foreign Equity firm has been contracted in over 1000 jurisdictions to count the votes.
    “He who votes, counts for nothing. He who counts votes counts for everything” Joseph Stalin

  3. Jim W says:

    It’s only September. We haven’t had any debates yet. Romney currently has a massive money advantage. In spite of all his ‘gaaaaaffes1!!1′ he’s still in a dead heat with the president whose self-image is so out of track with reality he’s single-handedly Inceptioned the nation back to 1980 – complete economic insanity, middle-east powderkegs, and today’s three-mile island shutdown. Donna Summer announced a new tour.


  4. Ben Pales says:

    Someone please explain to me the states that Romney will win, to put him over the top.

  5. LasvegasRichard says:

    The biggest problem with any poll is that it doesn’t factor in the youngest demographic, which typically can’t be assessed because they don’t have land lines … the medium used by pollsters.

  6. putupyourDUKES says:

    The obamacare tax only applies to people way above the average income in this country, it does not affect the poor and the middle class, get your facts right.

    The stock market is going no where but up, and unemployment is dropping every week.

    The writing is on the wall.

    Romney is not presidential, once he is on stage with Obama watch this thing get even worse for Romney. He has no path to victory in the electoral college.

  7. gil m says:

    This is how I see it Doug. Romney is his own worst enemy. He has hoof in mouth disease. All Utah Mormons will vote for Romney, regardless. That’s a no brainer. But Utah only has 6 electoral votes. Obama leads in all of the big electoral votes states, i.e., Calif. 55. Ny 29, Florida 29, Ill. 20, Texas 38, etc.. Moreover, all the minorities, Evangelicals, Southern Baptists, Catholics, etc., will not vote for Romney because they don’t think Mormons are Christians. That only leaves upper class tea party right wing conservatives in Romney’s camp, a distinct minority. It will take an absolute miracle for Romney to become president!

  8. Steve Stones says:

    I’m waiting for Brent Glines to put in his two cents here. That guy can rationalize and make anything seem truthful and possible. Where are you Mr. Glines?

  9. Steve Stones says:

    Doug will be eating some crow on election day. LOL. He relies to heavily on convenient polls that tell him what he wants to hear.

    • Doug says:

      Steve, I am arguing that the race is still close. You, on the other hand, appear to believe that the president already has the race won. Even if the president wins a narrow victory, you, and Ben, will have crow to eat.

  10. Midwinter says:

    Has anyone besides The Onion actually claimed that the race is over?

    You talk about conservative pundits being disgusted with the campaign. And well they should be. Romney isn’t really running a very good campaign at the moment. Or at any point thus far (e.g. every time he should have been able to take a victory lap, something/someone screwed up; won a debate? etch-a-sketch comment. Florida primary win? The crack about not worrying about poor people. Big convention speech? Eastwood yelled at a chair for 12 minutes). Seemingly every single major victory Romney has had has been undone by an unprofessional screwup.

    You claim that MSNBC are popping their corks early. Who? When? What MSNBC pundit has said “As of right now, this race is over and Obama will win in November”? Maddow? O’Donnell? Schultz? Maybe the ’94 “Republican Revolution” conservative Scarborough—WHO IS ON LIBERAL MSNBC FOR THREE HOURS A DAY?

    The “great November” you say Nate Silver predicts is *your* language; he’s actually talking about how complex the presidential narrative is to sort out and explaining that what’s going on with the Senate is really interesting. Where does he say that it’ll be a “great November”?

    I have not heard anyone, anywhere say anything other than that this is going to be a close race. In fact, the most interesting discussions I’m hearing that even gesture in the direction of an Obama win are concerned with how the GOP will response to an Obama victory. Will they take it as a repudiation of 30 years of hardening conservativism and move back to the center, as Frum and Sullivan want? Or will they read it as the result of a weak candidate and then double-down on moving to the right?

  11. Tom says:

    Will the real Mit Romney please stand up!

    I have believed from the beginning of this election season that Mit will ultimately expose his real self to the electorate and they will in turn – turn him down in his quest for glory. The more unscripted moments he has, the quicker the voting folks will get a load of the real deal. Recent events are certainly proving this out – so far. I just luvs it when he follows his true self and goes off script. It is only then that we get a glimmer of who and what he is – a cold, heartless, arrogant rich guy who is totally out of step and tune with the trials and travails of vast majority of the people.

  12. Craig41 says:

    We have added nearly 100 state polls to our database over the course of the past week. If you can’t infer some useful information from those, and instead insist on calibrating your expectations of the race from one or two tracking polls, you’re going to have a warped perspective on where the contest stands.

    It seems that you’re ignoring the state level races to instead focus on the trackers, which as Nate Silver points out above may be misleading. The biggest question remains, as pointed out by a commenter above, how does Romney get to 270? Even if he wins FL, NC, VA, and OH he still will be short a swing state. The electoral math gets worse if you try to build a Romney win without the bigger swing states (take FL and OH away and he basically has to run the table of the remaining toss ups). So no, the race isn’t over, but it shouldn’t be looked at it in any way other than Romney has to start making up ground quickly based on what the daily trackers are saying. Also of note, voting will have begun in over half the states within the next two weeks,the Romney campaign really does not have any time to spare.

  13. Pingback: » Sunday in Outer Blogness: Brilliant Strategies Edition!

  14. Steve Stones says:

    Doug, I’m not declaring Obama a victory. Where did I say that? Perhaps I suggested it. I’m still waiting for Brent Glines’ remarks here. That guy has to be right about everything he says and argues. It must be nice to live in a world of always being right. I’m sure he enjoys it.

  15. Erik says:

    I have voted in every election since President Truman, some times my man won ,sometimes he didn’t, but this election puts our country at the cross roads and the road ahead is clear, as is my choice.

    We stand a very good chance of moving more towards a theoracy in my opinion, and that I don’t want any part of.

    So with the assurance granted by of our constitution, I will proudly vote a straight Democratic ticket as early and often as I can in Flordia.

  16. Ian says:

    Is the Romney campaigns “reboot” taking place because he is running even with the president or because he is failing?

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