The result of this election will be mostly about President Obama

After the GOP convention last week, Mitt Romney received a small poll bounce — from the sole poll tracking likely voters — that will be gone by the time President Obama speaks at the Democratic Party convention on Thursday night. The president will likely get a small, short-lived poll bounce too. By the ides of September, the race will be where it’s mostly been this summer — essentially tied.

Passion for Mitt Romney will not be the reason he’ll win the presidency, and I think he remains a slight favorite (so says Obama supporter/blogger Andrew Sullivan, too, BTW). This kind of economic environment has not been kind to past presidents. However, the historical significance of President Obama’s election, and the passions he inspires in both his supporters and opponents, make him the biggest factor in the election November.

This race is perpetually tied. It seems that a smaller slice than usual — perhaps anywhere from 5 to 8 percent of voters — are truly undecided. A bigger factor will be the passion — positive and negative — for President Obama. What’s more of a motivator to go to the polls — to re-elect the president or deny him a second term?

Bennion Spencer, a Facebook friend, is a very smart Democratic Party member in Utah. He cited women and Hispanics as voting blocs that the president needs to motivate to the polls in high numbers. For Republicans, I’d say they need a high number of senior citizens, married voters, male voters and about 60 percent-plus of the white vote. A look at the Democratic Party’s convention on Tuesday night signals that Spencer is correct. Hispanics and women, as well as issues involving immigration and abortion rights, were prominent on the agenda. The keynote speaker was a prominent Hispanic mayor, Julian Castro, of San Antonio, Texas. Democrats are hoping that the black vote, which goes about 95 percent for Obama, is enthusiastic to vote.

Elections determined by the passions of party base voters, or simply demographic groups, are not uncommon. In 2004, an unprecedented turnout of base Republicans allowed President George W. Bush to outpoll John Kerry, who had a large vote as well.

The nomination of Romney was fortunate for Republicans. He’s regarded as a smart, moderate conservative leader with business acumen. That’s a plus considering the economy. Republicans can only thank their lucky stars that the party didn’t nominate Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, or Rick Santorum. Had that occurred, President Obama would be now cruising to a second term.

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15 Responses to The result of this election will be mostly about President Obama

  1. tom says:

    Doug,

    I think that when the electorate really gets to know Romney better they will turn away from him in significant numbers. The guy just doesn’t ring true, or he isn’t “real”. As an old shrink friend of mine used to say, people are naturally drawn to people they perceive to be “real” or genuine as opposed to people who are phony. Romney, rather he is or not, comes across as not “real” – ie phony, and Obama comes across as the genuine article rather you like his politics or not.
    The real contest is in the electoral votes where Obama currently has a substantial lead according to most pollsters.

    • Brent Glines says:

      Speaking of things that don’t ring true, how about the fraudulent platform election at the Democratic Convention to restore the planks that mention God, and Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. That was supposed to have passed with a 2/3 majority of votes from the delegates, but as the video/audio reveal, that didn’t happen, but the chair declared it to have passed anyway, since that was the outcome that had previously been determined.

      I expect Democrats to lie to the media, and to the public in general, but I never expected the Democratic leadership to lie to their own delegates at the convention. On national television. And now on Youtube, where it will live FOREVER.

      And you think Romney doesn’t ring true….?

      • J. Hartwell says:

        Who cares?
        It also doesn’t mention Santa Clause or He-Man.

        • Brent Glines says:

          The 2008 platform included the language, and it was a stupid decision, politically, to have taken it out. It was even more stupid to cravenly try to put it back in when it became apparent that they were taking political heat over it, and it was monumentally stupid to conduct a fraudulent platform vote and then lie about the results.

          I think a LOT of people are caring about this debacle right now. Democrats are the ones who should care the most, since they are the ones to whom their leadership lied.

          • Neal Cassidy says:

            Are you more upset it was removed or put back in the platform.

          • Brent Glines says:

            It’s their platform, they can do with it as they will, since I am not voting Democrat regardless. They should have kept it as it was, but I think they hurt themselves in taking it out, and hurt themselves further in cravenly putting it back in under pressure, and maimed themselves in how they conducted their vote.

  2. Doug says:

    This electoral map has it pretty close. RCP generally takes all the polls and averages them.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

  3. rls says:

    doug — you used the words “moderate” and “Romney” in the same sentence?? — if Romney himself had done that during the republican primaries he would have been boo-ed off the stage and voted into political oblivion –

  4. Dovie says:

    I was listening to NPR and they said Scott Howell, who was not going to go to the DNC, decided to go because they offered him a spot on a 6 person panel that was going to discuss democrats and religion.

    Big, big, mistake DNC. I bet all this last minute hooplan came from that little group. Once again, they look like horses’ patoots.

    The only difference between Utah dems and repubs is their “vision” of God. Repubs it’s money and Dems it’s some sort of spineless sea worm.

  5. Dovie says:

    I really think Romney would have done much better if he had maintained the Gov of Mass persona. The same people who hated Obama four years ago still hate Obama, but many of the people who liked Romney four years ago have really lost respect for the man. Supposedly, every time the economy is this bad the challenger wins so I think there is a bit of Mitt commentary there. I have some faith that the “real” Mitt will return if elected but I will never accuse the guy of “standing up for his beliefs”. It floors me that anybody sees him that way. IF congress is republican, the lickspittles will pass anything Romney throws out, which I predict will be very darn close to some of the things Obama suggested. That would be good but all it really amounts to is a 4 year delay for personal gain.

    (Howell must think it will be a personal gain for him to come back and tell Utah Dems he kept religion in politics. I’m betting he loses – he lost me)

  6. Myth Buster says:

    Smart, conservative, businessman? Mitt laundered Iraq-Contra drug and weapons money and used the profits to bankrupt corporations. His Clear Channel business partner Adnan Khashhoggi ran TOW Missiles to Iran which were used to kill Iraqi’s armed with US weapons given to Saddam Hussein.
    What sort of utter nonsense is this?

  7. WhatAboutBob7 says:

    Hustlers will screw you every time! Beware of smooth talkers! Action speaks louder than words! Are you really better off today than 4 yrs ago? Gasoline has doubled in price! 8% unemployment! Teen unemployment 15%! Inflation going up! When a elected President don’t keep his word what name do they give him? And you want to put him leading our country 4 more years! In the business world he’s fired! You better go see Obama’s America 2016 http://2016themovie.com/ It a man from India to see the essence of America!

  8. Deep Space says:

    Voting Is A Choice Between A Pink Dildo & A Purple Dildo
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KZAmfDWsRwA

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