Is President Obama really tied with Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann?

One of the reasons I discount polls now is they tend to swing so far apart. The one poll I still look at is Gallup, but even those pollsters are starting to publish data that boggles the mind. A poll on potential Obama/GOP candidates for 2012 has a couple of not surprising results. The president is tied with Mitt Romney and newcomer Rick Perry. The weird results though are that he’s also more or less tied with GOPers Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann. (Read)

Romney and Perry each garner at least 20 to 30 percent of national Republican support. It’s not surprising that they are tied with Obama among Americans. In fact, if the weak economy persists, they could win the presidency. But I can’t see how a Paul or Bachmann could win the presidency even if the official unemployment rate hit 12 or 13 percent by November 2012. Both are mirages held up by high supports at limited straw poll events and perhaps the Iowa caucus next year. Both will be eliminated when it’s time to deal with garnering votes in primaries. In fact, among Republicans nationwide, Paul and Bachmann are usually under 12 percent.

Looking at these numbers where Paul and Bachmann are in the mid-40s, I assume that anger at the president over the economy is at a high. The danger for Obama is that the passion, anger or otherwise, over his performance will turn to apathy, resulting in low voter turnout among his 2008 supporters. Perhaps this photo of the president enjoying a round of golf at one of the few places in the U.S. that’s sunny, under 80 degrees, and reserved for the wealthy is also fueling populist anger.

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23 Responses to Is President Obama really tied with Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann?

  1. Doug Gibson says:

    I’m still surprised that established pols with gubernatorial experience such as Gary Johnson, Buddy Roemer and Jon Huntsman are considered also rans to Bachmann and Paul.

  2. Edward Lee says:

    If you look at the details of the poll, Obama polls worst when head-to-head vs Ron Paul for Independents and Democrats. That’s part of the reason why overall Ron Paul does so well against Obama.

    So what you call surprising isn’t that surprising at all when you realize that Ron Paul has supporters across the board.

  3. Craig Purcell says:

    Ron Paul has crossover appeal to pick up Democrat and Independent voters. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ron run as an independent if he does not win the primary.

  4. “In fact, among Republicans nationwide, Paul and Bachmann are usually under 12 percent.”

    Choose your statistics and you’ll get the results you want. Since the mainstream media aren’t covering Paul, it’s not surprising that he doesn’t poll as high nationally.

    In places where he buys advertising (especially Iowa and NH), which offsets the media’s lack of coverage, he is doing rather well. He also did well in a recent poll of Republicans in Texas, his home state.

  5. Ed Ward II says:

    You’re kind of dopey Doug. First of all you don’t understand that Perry is a media construction – he’s not a conservative. Secondly, Ron Paul did better than Perry and Bachman in the Gallup poll if you look at the numbers. He is close to Romney.

  6. Derek Wain says:

    Typical Team Obama comment on the polls: I don’t like the results so they must be wrong. Any of the major Republican candidates could be Obama with this economy or worse.

  7. Hey, I’d just like to remind you all Ron Paul will bring all our soldiers home starting the day he takes office. If you are a rational person, it is your duty to save others if it is possible to do so without harming yourself. With your single vote, you could save thousands of Americans and a million or more foreigners. Aren’t they worth your time? Myself, if I don’t do my best for Dr. Paul I will feel complicit in the murders if I do not try to stop them.

    Of course, that being said – the double digit growth we”ll experience with that kind of bottom-up stimulus doesn’t hurt either. And getting my freedom back when the Patriot Act is repealed – well that’s just the icing on the cake.

    Vote Vertebrate – Ron Paul 2012!

  8. “Looking at these numbers where Paul and Bachmann are in the mid-40s, I assume that anger at the president over the economy is at a high.”

    Oh, of course!!!

    Nobody is angry that we’re in Libya, that the bailouts never stopped for outright criminals that are above the law for prosecution, that Guantanamo is still open, that Iraq is still waging (44 dead so far this year, last I checked), that warrantless wiretapping is still going on in clear violation to the 4th amendment, and that the Patriot Act is still law.

    It’s ONLY about the economy, stupid.

  9. Andres says:

    Oh no, Bachmann winning the Iowa straw poll means nothing. And Ron Paul? Who’s that, right?

    Bachmann is winning in Iowa and is on her way to in S Carolina. A’s for Paul, he has received a whooping $1.8 million money bomb in the past 24 hrs. Don’t believe me? Look it up!!!

    Michele Bachmann 2012

  10. Simon says:

    I’m not an American but if you guys vote Obama back in next year, and the policies that have turned the US into a laughing stock, you deserve every misery that will inevitably come your way. Unfortunately – the US going under will hurt the rest of the world too. I don’t understand why I should suffer because you people are so stupid that you’ll vote for civilisational suicide.

    • Owain says:

      So what particular piece of Heaven on Earth do you come from Simon. If America is so bad, what are you doing here?

  11. Aaron says:

    Ron Paul is much more popular than the old media would have you think. They are playing psychological warfare against Ron’s campaign by trying to depict it in the light of obscurity. Ron is far more popular than they would have you believe. They call him “unelectable”, but only the american electorate can decide such a thing; so their opinion is worthless. Eventually people will see through the smoke and realize that he has more than just a good chance at winning; his popularity is going viral. It is interesting to see the media explain away his apparent popularity by claiming that his niche following are manipulating all the polls and saturating the comment sections of blogs and news articles to make themselves “appear” in greater numbers. Paul does not need the old media anymore. His ideas are so thought provoking and refreshing that they are spreading rapidly by word of mouth. He has become a celebrity of far greater popularity than any other politician.

  12. Aaron says:

    To explain why Ron Paul’s popularity is suddenly going viral, read this science article on the 10% threshold for ideas to go viral:

    Ron Paul is beginning to tip the polls now. In a years time it will be a landslide.

  13. USS Constitution says:

    Just think how well Ron Paul might do if the media covered him fairly.

    While the other candidates are getting tons and tons of press time, and praise from the media, Ron Paul is accomplishing the same things. In many cases doing better than the other candidates while having the press constantly label him as un-electable and constantly misrepresenting his positions.

    If this was drag racing, it would be like a handicap race. Where the other car is given a 3/4 length head start, and Ron Paul is still beating them or coming extremely close.

  14. Owain says:

    Doug, it isn’t really hard to understand how all Republicans, even Bachmann and Paul, are polling so well against Obama. If you like Gallup Polls, this one shows ‘Generic Republican’ leading Obama 47% to 39%.

    The ‘generic republican’ is the ideal candidate, and is a good measure of the wide spread dissatisfaction with Obama. When you get to actual candidates, none of whom are ‘ideal’, some of the baggage each candidate inevitably brings with them causes that support to fragment. Some people like Perry, some people prefer Romney or Bachmann, and some people prefer Paul.

    Once a Republican candidate is selected, however, support will solidify around that candidate. Dissatisfaction with Obama is already established. Unless the economy improves significantly, I think his numbers will continue to erode. Given current policies, I don’t think any improvement will be likely before the election.

  15. Matt says:

    I can’t say the same for Bachmann, but the reason Ron Paul will match-up so well with Obama (if he garners the GOP nomination, which is admittedly a long ways off) is that he espouses many of the ideas that Obama ran on in 2008. Ending foreign wars and interventionism. Restoring personal and civil liberties. You may even remember that Obama once acted like he wants to move toward ending the drug war. These are all things that Dr. Paul has consistently espoused and fought for. Many democrats, independents, and moderate republicans who voted for Obama feel betrayed by Obama’s failure to come through on his campaign promises (the only change we’ve seen is negative, and hope is all but gone). I could go into a bit more detail, but I believe you get the point.

    • Bob Becker says:

      “Many democrats, independents, and moderate republicans who voted for Obama feel betrayed by Obama’s failure to come through on his campaign promises.”

      Yup. That and having proven himself to be stunningly incompetent as a leader of congress even when his party had a majority in both houses. Add them together and you don’t need much more to explain the erosion of much of his base support.

      When polled, I say I’m unhappy with him too. But does that mean on election day I’ll pull the lever for one of the current GOP goon show [Bachman, Perry, et al?]. Hell no. The GOP has some candidates that might convince me to go fishing on election day. Paul was one of them until he signed on to the creationist lunacy. As, sadly, did the GOP’s chameleon of the campaign, Romney. That leaves Huntsman who I don’t think has a prayer of winning the nomination. I’m so pissed off at the President at the moment that I might even, as H. L. Mencken put it explaining his vote for Harding, “hold my nose and do the dirty deed” and vote for Huntsman. I’d have to undergo ritual cleansing afterward of course and propitiate my dad with burnt offerings. But I’m mad enough now to think about it.

      If the Paul/Romney wing weren’t going to bring with them such toxic social conservative lunacy [think the whole Christian right platform: creationism taught as science in the schools, a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, elimination of the EPA on religious grounds --- yes, on religious grounds --- etc] I might even have taken a walk on election day if one of them was on the ticket. Not likely now.

      • Matt says:

        A lot of people think that Ron Paul doesn’t believe in evolution partly because of (surprise, surprise) mis-reporting by the media, take a look at this:

        Ron Paul’s campaign actually explicitly states that he DOES believe in evolution. There is a highly edited (though very popular) YouTube video that seems to say that Dr. Paul does NOT believe in evolution. Again, just a clever edit. It is unclear from the video what he really believes (he seems to be trying to avoid turning off some of the southern conservatives at the meeting he is attending), but the message from his campaign, linked above, is pretty clear.

        That being said, I don’t think that creationism vs. evolution should matter a whole lot when the country is going bankrupt, when we are involved in a myriad of unconstitutional foreign wars and conflicts, and where the federal government is overreaching its authority and infringing upon our rights at every turn. If you think that anyone BUT Ron Paul will do something about, you’re lying to yourself. And if your only problem with Dr. Paul was the creationism issue, I just fixed that for you. So, there you go, another happy Ron Paul supporter! Welcome to the R3volution!

  16. Nlanigan says:

    Or it might just be that people are sick and tired of the status-quo and all-around Nannyism going on in government. This country was founded on the principles of freedom, and if you push people enough they begin to push back @ some point. Lucky (@ least hopefully) for us, we don’t have to wait until Socialism completely takes over before we as a collective wake up and make decisions based on said freedom.

    This link will take you to Dr. Paul’s Congressional voting record. He has consistently voted according to the Constitution-regardless of personal beliefs. Click on each Bill to see exactly what it entails. you can also see some of the other candidate’s voting records through this link…

    This link will take you to where he stand on issues, usually in his own words…

    What has he done?

    And please be sure to @ the very least read excerpts from his books, and go to Youtube and watch his videos, before making up your mind.

  17. Eric Brakey says:

    It should be no surprise that Ron Paul polls competitively against Obama. The polls have been showing this consistently for the last year and a half, yet every time the same talking heads express shock and dismay. How long until the talking heads wake up and realize Ron Paul is popular?

    April 2010 – Rasmussen – Obama 42%, Paul 41%
    May 2011 – CNN – Obama 52%, Paul 45%
    July 2011 – Rasmussen – Obama 41%, Paul 37%
    August 2011 – Gallop – Obama 47%, Paul 45%

  18. If a majority of Republicans aren’t visionary adequate to find out the big image and put electability before popularity, they require not bother complaining for weeks on finish if they finish up losing a presidential election which they have a great opportunity at winning provided they tend not to marginalize and push out the moderate/centrist voices inside of their party by pandering for the far right.

    • Owain says:

      Whew! And here I was thinking we would never have the opportunity to hear from the inarticulate faction in this election cycle.

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