One of the reasons I discount polls now is they tend to swing so far apart. The one poll I still look at is Gallup, but even those pollsters are starting to publish data that boggles the mind. A poll on potential Obama/GOP candidates for 2012 has a couple of not surprising results. The president is tied with Mitt Romney and newcomer Rick Perry. The weird results though are that he’s also more or less tied with GOPers Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann. (Read)
Romney and Perry each garner at least 20 to 30 percent of national Republican support. It’s not surprising that they are tied with Obama among Americans. In fact, if the weak economy persists, they could win the presidency. But I can’t see how a Paul or Bachmann could win the presidency even if the official unemployment rate hit 12 or 13 percent by November 2012. Both are mirages held up by high supports at limited straw poll events and perhaps the Iowa caucus next year. Both will be eliminated when it’s time to deal with garnering votes in primaries. In fact, among Republicans nationwide, Paul and Bachmann are usually under 12 percent.
Looking at these numbers where Paul and Bachmann are in the mid-40s, I assume that anger at the president over the economy is at a high. The danger for Obama is that the passion, anger or otherwise, over his performance will turn to apathy, resulting in low voter turnout among his 2008 supporters. Perhaps this photo of the president enjoying a round of golf at one of the few places in the U.S. that’s sunny, under 80 degrees, and reserved for the wealthy is also fueling populist anger.