Mitt Romney remains the GOP frontrunner for 2012

Despite the momentum generated from Sarah Palin’s energetic efforts to elect Republicans in the midterm elections, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney remains the Republican Party’s frontrunner for the 2012 presidential nomination. The main reason isn’t so much that Romney leads in New Hampshire polls by 27 percent Read it’s that to the GOP, it’s Mitt’s turn to run in 2012.

Don’t scoff at that. With one exception (1964) Republicans have been nominating the establishment choice for president for several generations. Romney ran well in 2008, and campaigned hard for McCain and Palin. He has most of the early money from campaign donors. His name recognition will help him against potential challengers Gov. Mitch Daniels, Gov. Chris Christie, Sen. John Thune, or Gov. Tim Pawlenty (The GOP will not lack for qualified presidential candidates in 2012).

Another reason Romney has the potential to do well is he polls better with independents than several conservative activist candidates, that would include Palin, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, or former Sen. Rick Santorum.  The reason President Obama’s re-election is uncertain in 2012 is his one-time support from independents is gone. That group is more likely to move toward Romney, who has experience in economic policy that is an asset during tough times that may soon include inflation.

Ah, but the Mormon question, you ask? It certainly killed Romney’s chances in Iowa in 2008. Antipathy to the president, and more so his big-spending agenda, I think will galvanize the GOP base, anti-Mormon evangelicals as well, behind the GOP candidate in 2012, even if it’s Romney. And maybe the bias against Mormons is fading, given that Southern evangelicals are huge fans of talker Glenn Beck.

This is all crystal ball gazing, and it’s possible Romney could fade like Hillary Clinton did among Democrats in 2008. But, as mentioned, Republicans have stubbornly stuck with the candidate whose “time it is” for generations.

Palin will be a very strong candidate; she has earned the top-tier status she enjoys in the party and she’s got my vote if she’s the nominee. She probably polls higher than Romney among the base, but I don’t think she can win over independents against Obama as well as Romney can.

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18 Responses to Mitt Romney remains the GOP frontrunner for 2012

  1. tom says:

    Doug, Doug, Doug

    It is very surprising to hear that a politically astute, and what I thought was a nominally rational man, like you would actually support a divisive, intellectually challenged and disingenuous ditz like Palin as President! Please Doug, get back on your meds before you become irretrievably lost in the blur and/or get totally consumed by a manipulative momma grizzly with no ethical boundaries. (Or are you just smitten in your adolescence by the pretty face on the empty head?)

  2. Doug Gibson says:

    Maybe it’s the latter Tom! I will continue to support and admire Palin, who I think is very underestimated.

    Romney is my first choice in 2012, though!

    Doug

  3. midwinter says:

    Do not confuse rednecks listening to Beck with a waning bias against Mormons. Ain’t no way the Southern Baptists will vote for a Mormon for president.

  4. Jim W says:

    I expect RomneyCare to be an ongoing trouble area for Mitt in the primaries.

  5. Mark Shenefelt says:

    \ … his one-time support from independents is gone.\ I suspect that might prove to be an overstatement, especially if Palin or an equally polarizing candidate is fielded by the Republicans.

  6. ScottH says:

    If the GOP establishment nominating pattern holds true (i.e. Bob Dole running in 1996 “because it’s my turn!”), Romney will be the GOP candidate. The runner up will cement his/her spot for the next round, as Romney has done.

    While all political candidates are flawed, it seems that the GOP could be on track to nominate a seriously flawed candidate. Still, it’s way too early to forecast what an Obama-Romney match-up might look like. So much can happen between now and then.

    I agree with Doug that one of Mrs. Palin’s greatest assets is that her opponents underestimate her. However, I also believe that she will ultimately have extreme difficulty appealing to a broad enough coalition to gain enough traction to be elected to national office. If she were to capture the GOP nomination in 2012, 2016, or even 2020, we could see a vintage 1964 Barry Goldwater redux.

  7. M.W. says:

    Mitt Romney is a mayonnaise sandwich on white bread—-totally spineless, bland and a RINO, to boot.

    It is NOT “his turn”…….we had McCain as a nominee and he was spineless, as well—that’s why he lost. He NEVER confronted the inexperience of a two term senator who HID his background, and look where there got us. Remember how everyone was disappointed in the republican nominee? How the hell did we get him? Don’t be “handled” by the republican machine—they’re as bad as the socialists/democrats. This isn’t a game!!! Let the PEOPLE have input. Republicans are being “outed” as well as the “progressives”. The people are fast becoming un-governable—and that’s good—we know who the enemies are. They are the “career” criminals—the “well known” faces.

    New people, not re-treads. New blood is what is needed.

  8. laytonian says:

    Doug: Every time you see Sarah Palin, imagine her with Meg Whitman’s face.

    Now, how deep does your admiration really go?
    Listen to her speech patterns, while visualizing Whitman.
    Listen to her words, while visualizing Whitman.

    Trust me. It works.
    I won’t tell you how.

  9. Midwinter says:

    \It is NOT “his turn”…….we had McCain as a nominee and he was spineless, as well—that’s why he lost.\

    Pretty sure it was Romney’s turn in ’08, not McCain’s, and that Huckabee stayed in the race in order to screw him. As a result, the GOP got McCain.

  10. Mike Johnson says:

    Most Christian conservatives see Mormonism as the Cult of Moroni with its strange temple rituals and anointing as being as strange as anything written by Aleister Crowley. They can point to the inverted pentagrams and the Masonic symbolism in Mormonism and Mormonism’s reject of the cross reminiscent of vampires aversion to this same traditional and universal accepted symbol representing Christianity.

    Mormons can’t see why anyone would doubt that a serial adulterer who “married” two 14-year-old girls, who used a magic rock and a black hat to translate the world’s most perfect book that as had over 3000 changes made to it.

    Mitt will make more people knowledgeable about Mormonism, polygamy, blood of atonement and Jupiter Stones.

  11. Brian C says:

    While Sarah Palin has been leading the fight against Barack Obama and the \fundamental transformation of America,\ Mitt Romney is usually nowhere to be seen. Courage was never Mitt’s strong suit.

  12. Steve Stones says:

    Please run Mr. Romney as the GOP candidate in 2012! Then that way he can explain to voters, particularly Native American voters, why the church continues to peddle the idea that Native American indians descended from Israelites, which is wrong, racist and untrue. DNA research has proven that natives came from Mongolia and Siberia.

  13. Dan says:

    Those not of the Mormon faith usually think they all about it. Usually they don’t. For those who won’t vote for someone based on their religion are obviously arrogant enough to think they are in charge of what religion is right and which is wrong. Churches are based on peoples interrelation of scripture. So my question is this who put them in charge of what is right and what is wrong. Bottom line if they are intelligent enough to know what the country needs (not wants) they will vote for a person that is fiscally at the top of his or her game. Mitt Romney is a self made man. I don’t think he ever bribed anyone with promises of getting to heaven if they are a Mormon or condemned anyone to hell who wasn’t. I would bet he will never make the Mormon church the state religion. Vote for the most qualified not their religion.

  14. Dan says:

    CORRECTED COPY – Those not of the Mormon faith usually think they know all about it. Usually they don’t. For those who won’t vote for someone based on their religion, they are obviously arrogant enough to think they are in charge of what religion is right and which is wrong. Churches are based on peoples interpretation of scripture. So my question is this, who put them in charge of what is right and what is wrong. Bottom line if they are intelligent enough to know what the country needs (not wants) they will vote for a person that is fiscally at the top of his or her game and has governing experience. Mitt Romney is a self made man and former Governor. I don’t think he ever bribed anyone with promises of getting to heaven if they would become a Mormon or condemned anyone to hell who wouldn’t. I would bet he will never make the Mormon church the state religion. Vote for the most qualified not their religion.

  15. Tom Blumer says:

    Your statement — “With one exception (1964) Republicans have been nominating the establishment choice for president for several generations” — is absolutely incorrect.

    Ronald Reagan was NOT the establishment GOP’s choice in 1980. George H.W. Bush was. They schemed against Reagan in New Hampshire, leading to the famous “I paid for this microphone” incident.

    Many who were involved in the presidential race against Carter in 1980 in Ohio have told me that the Ohio GOP sat on its hands while grass-roots people did the dirty work that won the Buckeye State for Reagan.

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  18. John B says:

    I think Mitt Romney is a fine business man and patriotic American. And while I would support him for an administrative post I can’t support him for president. Most of the non Mormon world considers it a less than mainstream religion. I am a Christian but I would vote for a Jewish candidate a Hindu candidate or perhaps a Buddhist one. I would have trouble supporting a Islamic candidate because of their views on women and infidels (us). I believe that Newt is the smartest candidate and would make a great president but the media and the left would treat him with more hatred and disdain than they did Bush. Tim Pawlenty may be the best choice because he is reportedly a true conservative and as far as I know has not yet been demonized by liberals.

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