Republicans will easily gain control of U.S. House; it won't even be close

With less than a fortnight before the 2010 midterms, it’s time to put on my admittedly fallible prognosticator’s hat on. The lead is this: The Republicans, who are currently outpaced in the House by Democrats, 257 to 178, will not only take control of the House, they will take control with votes to spare. RealClearPolitics.com currently lists 214 House seats that will go Republican, compared to 180 for Democrats. Listed as “tossup” are 41 of the seats. The GOP only needs to pick up four of the “tossup” seats to gain the 218 majority; the party will at least win half of the tossups, and likely more. (A sad note for Utah Republicans — most forecasters have concluded that Democrat Jim Matheson will beat GOPer Morgan Philpot.) To go to RealClearPolitics, surf here

One problem Democrats have is that a healthy portion of the new Democratic congresspersons elected in 2006 and 2008 are in districts that Sen. John McCain carried in the 2008 presidential election. With President Obama less popular this year, these Democrats are very vulnerable. Also, bellwether state, Ohio, which trended Democratic the past two election cycles, has signaled that it will trend Republican this year. If you want an early tip on how big the GOP win will be, check the Indiana 2nd District race. Democrat Joe Donnelly should beat Republican Jackie Walorski, but he’s still under 50 percent. If Donnelly goes down, look out, it’s a stampede. We’ll take a look at the U.S. Senate next week.

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10 Responses to Republicans will easily gain control of U.S. House; it won't even be close

  1. Daniel Z. says:

    227 seats for the Republicans, per Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight, the best forecaster around:

    http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

  2. Doug Gibson says:

    The Daily Beast has a fun predictor as well: The Oracle, at http://www.thedailybeast.com/election-oracle/?cid=topic:mainpromo2

    It picks 224 for the GOP. I claim higher because I believe there will be a substantial GOP edge in voting that I’m not sure polls are noting, other than Gallup.

  3. Owain says:

    Here is the best explanation I’ve seen yet to explain why Republicans will be winning big in the upcoming election.

    http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/republicans-kind-of-suck-which-is-why-they-will-win-huge-in-november/?singlepage=true

    The obvious is always obvious once someone points out the obvious.

    I think Yogi Berra first said that… If not, he should have.

  4. Mark Shenefelt says:

    Doug, we’ll hold you to the 234+ prediction. …

    Agh, I think I’m already getting tired of two years of Deep Tan Boehner’s pontifications. I’m also wondering what the righties will do without Pelosi and maybe Reid to dropkick any longer. Grind their faces into the pavement?

  5. Jim W says:

    Owain, Frank J is a hoot. His blog IMAO is worth a look.

  6. Midwinter says:

    I tend to go with Silver, as well. The Dems are gonna get hammered in the House, for sure. Partly, this was going to happen no matter what they did. Partly, as Doug rightly points out, this was a quirk of the Dem landslide in ’08 picking up seats they had no business winning. Partly, it’s because the Dems can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like nobody’s business. Partly, it’s because the fools decided not to run on their accomplishments and run away from Obama.

  7. Jim W says:

    Ramming through congress something that makes things worse and in defiance of the pleas of the populace isn’t an accomplishment, it’s an assault. That’s why the Dems are running away from, rather than on, the last four years of Pelosi/Reid Congress.

  8. paul revere says:

    america the fallen.. why vote they have killed democracy here time to move on. america will fall just like the russians predicted, but a year or two later

    citizens united, saudi money. there was a coup under the Bush admin is the fact. they covered it and let the Dems in because they changed laws under Bush to secure their hold on america.

    we live in an oligarchy ruled by chinese, saudi , british and US rich corporate interests now.

    america is dead. time to burn it down. the citizens are coming, with torches. to take back their country. watch the next year and you will learn the same lesson again. fools.

  9. Jim W says:

    Wow, Paul. You auditioning for your own MSNBC show?

  10. Preston says:

    Props to you, Doug, for using the word “fortnight.” It’s a good word, deserves to be reintroduced to Americans. I loved hearing it in England.

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