With less than a fortnight before the 2010 midterms, it’s time to put on my admittedly fallible prognosticator’s hat on. The lead is this: The Republicans, who are currently outpaced in the House by Democrats, 257 to 178, will not only take control of the House, they will take control with votes to spare. RealClearPolitics.com currently lists 214 House seats that will go Republican, compared to 180 for Democrats. Listed as “tossup” are 41 of the seats. The GOP only needs to pick up four of the “tossup” seats to gain the 218 majority; the party will at least win half of the tossups, and likely more. (A sad note for Utah Republicans — most forecasters have concluded that Democrat Jim Matheson will beat GOPer Morgan Philpot.) To go to RealClearPolitics, surf here
One problem Democrats have is that a healthy portion of the new Democratic congresspersons elected in 2006 and 2008 are in districts that Sen. John McCain carried in the 2008 presidential election. With President Obama less popular this year, these Democrats are very vulnerable. Also, bellwether state, Ohio, which trended Democratic the past two election cycles, has signaled that it will trend Republican this year. If you want an early tip on how big the GOP win will be, check the Indiana 2nd District race. Democrat Joe Donnelly should beat Republican Jackie Walorski, but he’s still under 50 percent. If Donnelly goes down, look out, it’s a stampede. We’ll take a look at the U.S. Senate next week.