A new Pew poll shows voters are dissatisfied with incumbents at a near-record level. Only 52 percent votersnow support their incumbent. In 1994, only 49 percent of voters supported their House incumbent. Majority party Democrats lost 52 seats. In 2006, according to Pew, only 50 percent supported their incumbent and majority party Republicans lost 31 seats. Here
Democrats are so deep into their now unpopular health care reform plans that they likely have to push something through, although by December it’s likely only the party’s base will be cheering it; and they might not cheer at anything if the president increases troop levels in Afghanistan. Frankly, 2010 doesn’t loom much better, with an unpopular energy bill, even more unpopular immigration reform and a “finance reform” bill that enables Wall Street to continue its bad behavior topping potential legislative initiatives.
On the bright side, President Obama’s popularity has on average stayed at about 51 to 52 percent, a sign people like him and want him to succeed. But the generic Republican/Democratic congressional ballot has moved the GOP’s way. Pew still has the Democrats leading, but Rasmussen and Gallup have Republicans ahead by 6 and 4 points, respectively.
Midwinter
on Nov 12th, 2009
@ 7:21 am:
When did HCR get unpopular? Last polls I saw indicated that the public option was quite popular. I think it’s a mistake to read congressional disapproval as an indictment of HCR; a large chunk of it is that people are unhappy with how much the Democrats seem to suck at doing it.
Obama ran on increasing troop levels in Afghanistan. It’s not like that will be a surprise.
Midwinter
on Nov 12th, 2009
@ 8:30 am:
AH, nevermind. Just checked Pollster’s composites re: the Health care plan. Maybe you’re right. If they don’t pass *something* in the Senate and get it signed into law, 2010 could be a very, very bad year for the Dems and Obama.
Mark Shenefelt
on Nov 12th, 2009
@ 9:22 am:
What about the economy and jobs? I think the key will come down to these issues. The other factors cited aren’t as important to Joe Sixpack, although they’re getting 90 percent of the political hot air supply.
At the bottom of the Pew poll report:
“The share of Americans who rate their own personal financial situation positively has fallen to a 17-year low. Just 35% of Americans say they are in excellent or good shape financially, down slightly from 38% in October. The last time personal financial ratings fell to this level was in August of 1992.”
If these factors aren’t better a year from now, most voters will check their wallets and take it out on incumbents.
Flatlander100
on Nov 12th, 2009
@ 11:32 am:
MS is right. If unemployment is still in the neighborhood of 10% nationwide, or more, the Dems will take it on the chin in the mid-term elections. They’re going to lose seats no matter what [mid term elections following huge changes at the preceding presidential election nearly always involve some seats returning to the losing party], but they will lose a lot if the employment numbers are still around double digits.
And my prediction is [and it's worth every penny you pay for it] is that political historians looking back a decade or more from now will list Gaither as President Obama’s worst appointment, and the one that did him the greatest political damage.
We shall see.
Michael Trujillo
on Nov 12th, 2009
@ 7:03 pm:
OK. After months of ignoring the poll data you like to spew, Doug, I finally have to ask … what does “points” mean in a poll? When you say the Republicans are ahead by 4 and 6 points, how is that figured? Is it short for “percentage points”? That would make sense.
By the way, just how many people did these polls ask?
Michael Trujillo
on Nov 12th, 2009
@ 7:16 pm:
Looked them up. Pew asked 2000 people. Rasmussen polled 1000 people. Gallup polled 900 people. Seems like small numbers to be judging the entire country on.
And how come, in my entire life, I’ve never been given the opportunity to participate in one of these types of polls? Does any body here know someone who’s actually been called by Pew, Rassmussen, or Gallup?
flatlander100
on Nov 12th, 2009
@ 7:29 pm:
MT:
The polls have proven to be generally accurate [unless they're botched or slanted] on national preferences for the time they are taken. I tell students to think of them as still pictures of horses taken during a race. Tell’s you whose in front at that given second, but may not tell you who will be in front ten yards furtehr on, much less at the finish line.
What they’re not really accurate at doing is predicting voter behavior in the future, and the further off the election, the worse they are at predicting. Voters have very short attention spans, and much will — and won’t — happen between now and the election that will sway the final polls and outcome.
The numbers polled are sufficient provided the sample is well done [i.e. that it is accurately reflects the general electorate and that within each demographic category, those selected to poll are truly randomly chosen.]
You get to express your opinion, TJ, in the biggest poll of all. So do I. They hold it on election day.