With about a year to go before the 2010 elections, we’re a 50-50 nation. The Swamp blog has crunched the numbers. read The generic no-name congressional preference polls generally split even among Democrats and Republicans. Gallup has President Obama at 50 percent approval. Most polls show slight opposition to ObamaCare.
Congress’ approval rating is at 21 percent. Democrats are more popular than Republicans, but motivation wins or loses campaigns. The bad news for Democrats is that seniors, facing hundreds of billions in dollars in future Medicare cuts they will blame on Obama, will be motivated to vote. Unemployment at 10 percent does not motivate a party in power’s base. Will younger 20-somethings and people of color rush to the polls to vote Democrat? Political expert Charlie Cook doesn’t thinks so. He’s warning that Democrats could lose 25 seats in Congress. MSNBC talker Chris Matthews thinks the party could lose 40 seats or more.
Watch next month’s gubernatorial races closely. If the GOP takes Virginia, we’re back to a 2004 political landscape. If the Republicans also unseat Gov. Jon Corzine in New Jersey, that’s even bigger news. The GOP candidates are ahead in the polls in both states.
craig41
on Oct 8th, 2009
@ 11:11 am:
ah a little poll cherry picking again, here’s the generic ballot trend and here’s the trend of obama approval, and just for fun, here’s congressional approval. picking one result out and running with it, while fun, can be overstating your case, and setting the bar very high for republicans in 2010. i mean based on the numbers you’ve given here, how can they not take back the house and senate?
beyond the polling how can you say that if mcdonnell beats deeds in virginia it says something about the country at large? i can see republicans looking for signs of momentum, but calling it 2004 over again is once again setting the bar very high for republicans in 2010.
Willbike
on Oct 11th, 2009
@ 10:24 am:
Here by let it be know that I believe that the speculators may or may not be right about their speculations, but I’m just speculating.