Check out this political paradox. The Republican Party is more unpopular than it’s ever been, but voters are becoming more conservative. Gallup’s latest numbers peg 40 percent of Americans as conservative and only 20 percent as liberal. Most of the remaining self-described independents call themselves conservatives. In my opinion, we are experiencing a libertarian/conservative surge in this country. People are fed up with excessive government spending and the greed that is prevalent among Wall Street and Congress. Social conservatism, long a fixture of GOP politics, is of less importance to the electorate. Ironically, the GOP may benefit more because the Obama administration shows no inclination to curb government spending. In fact, it’s projecting spending and deficits that President George W. Bush could only dream of.
Keep an eye Tuesday night on the special election for U.S. House Seat 23 in New York. Long a liberal Republican seat, it’s up for grabs due to upstart Conservative Party candidate, fiscal conservative Doug Hoffman. He was earlier edged out by the party establishment, who made sure liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava was the GOP nominee. When the tiny Conservative Party made Hoffman its nominee, few expected much to occur. But Hoffman’s message of fiscal conservatism has caught on with the voters and the race is up for grabs. The latest poll shows Hoffman with 34 percent, Democrat Bill Owens with 29 percent and the GOP’s Scozzafava far behind with 14 percent.
Those of you doubt Gallup’s national numbers need to look at the internals of the poll, which sampled 15,000 people. More Americans than ever distrust the government on its regulation of business and guns. More of us are for tougher immigration restrictions and more of us are wary of labor unions. Our trust in government is very low compared to other times in history. The problem for the Democrats, and the Obama administration, is that its priorities run counter to the current public opinion.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/123854/Conservatives-Maintain-Edge-Top-Ideological-Group.aspx
Neal Humphrey
on Oct 27th, 2009
@ 5:16 pm:
Yup. This conservative 40-year-member of the Democrat Party feels zero compulsion to become a Republican. And i haven’t voted for a Democrat presidential candidate since I made the stupid mistake of voting for Jimmy.
Michael Trujillo
on Oct 27th, 2009
@ 5:33 pm:
I doubt that people are changing. I think the terms are being redefined. People are searching for labels that more closely identify them. It’s almost as if we’re going through a kind of adolescence politically: looking for the clique that we’re most comfortable in. The conservatives are no longer cool, and the liberals are no longer rebellious enough. Like a high school where the only choices are Hood, Jock, Cowboy, and Nerd, Americans are waiting for the next cool tag to wear.
I hope it’s not Punker. I no longer have the body for it.
**Note – my clique terminology is a little dated but, give me a break. I haven’t been a teen-ager in decades.
Neal Humphrey
on Oct 27th, 2009
@ 6:04 pm:
I’m a cowboy. From Wyoming.
Steve Stones
on Oct 27th, 2009
@ 9:49 pm:
Doug, my take on this is perhaps voters are “dissing” (to use your word) the GOP not necessarily because of what they stand for (or against), but because they are having a serious problem finding a person to lead their party into the next big election cycle. Is it Mitt Romney, or Sarah Palin, or Mike Huckabee, or Ron Paul, or who is it? We will have to find out pretty soon, I suspect.
ctrentelman
on Oct 28th, 2009
@ 9:04 am:
It’s what I’ve been telling you for some time, Doug — I’m a conservative, the group of people who call themselves the core of the Republican party are not conservative at all — they believe in massive government spending and debt, huge expansion of government powers and intruding government oversight into the doctor’s office — they live in massive expensive houses, drive massive expensive cars and lead massive expensive lives.
I do none of those things. I believe in paying for what you buy — yes, even if that includes raising taxes. I believe in smaller and less intrusive government — and that includes staying the hell out of life-or-death medical decisions such as that brain dead chick that our Rep. Biship was ready to fly across the Atlantic at massive expensive to vote to intrude into. And I believe in effeciency and eliminating waste, which would mean making health care available for all to cut medical bankruptcies and avoid people waiting until they’re sick.
so, yeah, I’m a conservative. Sadly, the Republican party is the antithesis of all I stand for.
– and, please note — I am very well the Republican party SAYS it is for much of what I believe in. Sadly for them, I go by actions, not words.
Mark Shenefelt
on Oct 28th, 2009
@ 9:22 am:
I tend to agree here with Steve and Charlie.
The GOP leaders for too long have looked the other way or actively enabled a long run of robber barons in and out of government, conspiracy theorists, plain old cranks, and overt haters on many of the hot-button issues.
It should not be surprising that many people who consider themselves conservatives have decided to do a little variety voting or just stay home.
I saw a headline this morning from Congressional Quarterly that Huckabee is the GOP pack leader now. Rapture for conservatives, eh?
Michael Trujillo
on Oct 28th, 2009
@ 9:57 am:
In line with Charles’ and Mark’s comments, I’ve always wondered why working class American conservatives have been so vocal in their support of Republican Party policies. If you make what used to be called a Middle income, you do not benefit from the actions of Republican lawmakers, for the most part. They garnered support from people like Doug by espousing religious values and promoting the dream that anyone can, one day, be rich if they work hard. Meanwhile, they screw anyone who truely works for a living.
Now, the unwashed masses, who’s support the Republican Party needs are finally seeing the light and taking their votes elsewhere.
jasonthe
on Oct 28th, 2009
@ 3:05 pm:
What you’re seeing here is a poll that doesn’t tell you enough to conclude with any credibility that the Democratic Party’s priorities “run counter to current public opinion.”
Ideology polls are traditionally unreliable, and the shift in this one poll is not a large enough shift to make such a conclusion (though I give you credit for the attempt). Also, the numbers change greatly for the “liberal” cross section if the word “progressive” is added as an option. ABC and PEW polls also contradict the findings of this poll, which doesn’t undermine this poll, but begs the question of it’s conclusiveness.
Without a doubt this is a good sign for conservatives and they should be encouraged by it, but it’s by no means reasonable to assume it justifies a condemnation of Obama’s policies (especially considering his own approval rating remains noticeably high) or an ideological revolution about to occur.
As for NY-23, we should be careful to pin too much on one race. By the districts standards and voting record overall, the “moderate” Republican qualifies as “conservative.” And Hoffman isn’t “the” Republican, as Palin claims, but rather the “Tea Party” candidate. It’s interesting to watch, but it tells us more about the feeling of a predictably conservative district, and the in-fighting in the GOP ranks than it does which direction will pull the GOP out of the southern-part woods it finds itself trapped in.
Overall, Doug, you’ve got to put a little more thought into these things. Your argument here is a bit transparent, and blurs what really can be gleaned from such polls and such elections.
Ashley
on Oct 28th, 2009
@ 3:17 pm:
It does seem pretty ironic that conservatism is on the rise right now- but then again, doesn’t this always seem to happen when presidential approval ratings aren’t very high? For some multiple perspective media reactions to the Gallup poll results check out this video from newsy.com
http://www.newsy.com/videos/time_for_conservatives_to_shine
laytonian
on Oct 29th, 2009
@ 4:12 pm:
Ashley, what do you mean “presidential approval ratings aren’t very high”?
PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL RATINGS – FIRST TERM
(CBS poll, Oct 2009)
Spring Fall
Barack Obama 68% 56%
Ronald Reagan 67% 55%
George W. Bush 56% 90%
Bill Clinton 49% 48%
George H.W. Bush 61% 69%
Jimmy Carter 64% 55%
Obama’s consistently ahead of Reagan “at the same time” in the Presidency.
Look at George W. Bush’s rating. 90% in the fall? If it takes a terrorist attack to put Obama at 90%, I think we’ll all pass.
Doug Gibson
on Oct 29th, 2009
@ 4:19 pm:
Here is the Real Clear Politics average of Obama’s numbers — they are 51.4 to 44.4 percent.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html
laytonian
on Oct 30th, 2009
@ 6:41 pm:
Of course, Doug, a right-wing site like RealClearPolitics is going to pick-and-choose which polls they include in their average.
If one is to use an average, why not average everything?
I truly believe that the results of the ONE poll I posted, that has historical background and trends, is more valuable in the comparison. Yours has no comparison between the presidents, which was kinda my point, ya know?
Dovie
on Nov 1st, 2009
@ 7:46 am:
I agree with Charles Trentleman. Republicans don’t know what either “conservative” or “Christian” means anymore, yet they purport to be masters of both.
The following is a CS Lewis quote. It seems to me the Republican party has adoped the auspicious pinnacle of tyranny by being BOTH robber barons AND moral busybodies.
Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.
C. S. Lewis